On February 15, 2024, the Japan Meteorological Corporation released its 13th forecast for the dates of sakura blossom flowering (kaika) and full bloom (mankai).
Definitions of flowering and full bloom:
- Flowering: When 5-6 or more flowers open on a sakura blossom tree.
- Full Bloom: When 80% or more of the flower buds on a sakura blossom tree have opened.
The Japan Meteorological Corporation estimates the flowering and full bloom dates of Yoshino Sakura trees at approximately 1000 sakura blossom viewing spots from Hokkaido to Kagoshima. This year's sakura blossoms are expected to bloom earlier than usual, with Hokkaido predicted to be earlier than previous years.
Trends in Sakura Blossom Flowering in 2024
The forecast suggests that this year, the sakura blossoms' awakening from dormancy is expected to be later than normal, but once awakened, the temperatures are anticipated to be higher than usual, leading to a faster growth rate of flower buds.
January temperatures are higher than the previously announced predictions, indicating that the flowering period nationwide is expected to be 1 to 2 days earlier. In the southern part of Kyushu, high temperatures in January significantly delayed the breaking of dormancy, and the flowering date is expected to be 4 to 5 days later than the previous forecast.
It is predicted that Kochi Prefecture will bloom on March 19, followed by other regions in Kanto, Chubu, and Kyushu.
[East Japan / West Japan]
October temperatures were close to normal, November temperatures were higher than normal, and December temperatures were either close to or significantly above normal. Due to the higher temperatures from November to December, the time of breaking dormancy is expected to be delayed by several days to 10 days.
January temperatures are expected to be much higher than normal, and February to March temperatures will be higher than normal. The flowering time will be close to normal or earlier than normal.
[Northern Japan]
From October to November 2023, temperatures were significantly higher than normal, and December temperatures were close to normal. Due to the higher temperatures from October to November, the time of breaking dormancy is expected to be delayed by about 1 week to 10 days.
January temperatures are expected to be much higher than normal, February and March temperatures will be higher than normal, and April temperatures will be close to normal. The flowering time will be close to normal or earlier than normal.
2024 Forecasted Flowering and Full Bloom Dates by Region
[Fourth Forecast Released on February 15, 2024]
| City | Forecasted Flowering Date | Flowering Deviation (days) | Forecasted Full Bloom Date | Full Bloom Deviation (days) | Average Flowering Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sapporo | 5/1 | 0 | 5/5 | -1 | 5/1 |
| Aomori | 4/19 | -3 | 4/23 | -3 | 4/22 |
| Sendai | 4/6 | -2 | 4/11 | -2 | 4/8 |
| Tokyo | 3/22 | -2 | 3/29 | -2 | 3/24 |
| Kanazawa | 3/31 | -3 | 4/6 | -2 | 4/3 |
| Nagano | 4/5 | -6 | 4/10 | -6 | 4/11 |
| Nagoya | 3/20 | -4 | 3/30 | -3 | 3/24 |
| Kyoto | 3/23 | -3 | 3/31 | -4 | 3/26 |
| Osaka | 3/25 | -2 | 4/1 | -3 | 3/27 |
| Wakayama | 3/22 | -2 | 3/31 | -3 | 3/24 |
| Hiroshima | 3/22 | -3 | 4/1 | -2 | 3/25 |
| Kochi | 3/19 | -3 | 3/27 | -3 | 3/22 |
| Fukuoka | 3/22 | 0 | 3/31 | 0 | 3/22 |
| Kagoshima | 3/27 | 1 | 4/7 | 2 | 3/26 |
Source: Japan Meteorological Corporation
